24.10 - 26.10.2018  
Seattle, USA
Contact person:
Cristian Proistosescu, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The Climate Variability Across Scales (CVAS) working group plans to conduct their third workshop, titled "Spatio-temporal scaling of forced and unforced variability across the Holocene: from proxies to process" from 24-26 October 2018 in Seattle, USA.


University of Washington, Seattle, USA


Participation numbers will be limited from 30-50 people, due to venue and funding constraints. All scientists are welcome to apply.


Understanding the structure of natural variability is necessary to identify anthropogenically forced climatic changes. At the same time, the scaling structure of variability also contains information about the underlying dynamics of the climate system. Given the short nature of the observational record relative to the timescales of many crucial processes, any approach necessitates the use of palaeoclimate data. The Holocene presents the most promising interval, due to its similarity to modern climate, although it also comes with the need to disentangle forced and internal variability.

The first two CVAS workshops (here and here) resulted in several scientific insights upon which we will build and expand:
- Distinct scaling regimes at different spatial locations may be used to disentangle forced and internal variability.
- Identifying scaling regimes is complicated due to proxies imprinting their own scaling and being spatially and temporally sparse.
- Finally, the last workshop highlighted the need to build physical and statistical models that can better bridge the divide between theory and observations.

In this third workshop, these questions will be addressed through a hierarchical approach. The effort and the expertise of the invited speakers will be compartmentalized into three different sessions.


1. Translating observations to process
How do we reconstruct the scaling of physical variability from the available proxy record? We will draw on expertise in proxy-forward modeling and paleaoclimate temperature and forcing reconstruction techniques.

2. Theory and models
What are the imprints of forced and unforced variability, and how do we link the scaling of variability to specific climate processes? We will draw on expertise in paleoclimate modelling, nonlinear geophysics, and theoretical climate dynamics.

3. From proxy to physics
How to bridge the divide? We will draw on expertise in blending observations observations with dynamical models of varying complexity, from conceptual stochastic models to paleoclimate reanalysis.


The meeting will be comprised of plenary talks highlighting both recent advances and outstanding issues in the different areas (above), followed by focused panel discussions which aim to develop specific plans and ideas on how to move forward. The meeting will conclude with a plenary panel discussion where the conclusions of individual sessions are shared.

Further information

More information on how and when to apply, and financial support possibilities, will be made closer to the event dates.

In the meantime, queries can be sent to meeting organizer Cristian Proistosescu: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.